M’sia seen recording strong export performance, better 4Q09 results expected

KUCHING: Malaysia’s gross exports turned around faster than expected to a positive growth of 1.6 per cent year-over-year in October, tentatively mar­king the end of a 12-month contraction.According to OSK Re­search Sdn Bhd, an increase in commodity prices due to recovering global economy has put Malaysia’s export sector at an advantage as most of the country’s ship­ments comprise commodity and commodity-related products. In addition, it stated that the country’s exports will expand further on intra-regional trade, given the encouragingly good trade performance supported by intra-regional demand.

Most surprisingly, the research house noted the strong rebound in October’s shipments of electric and electronics of 18.4 per cent versus a negative 19.2 per cent seen in September. On a month-over-month basis, both gross exports and imports saw strong double digit growth of 15 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respec­tively.

Moreover, OSK Research also said improving global consumer and business sentiment will drive stock replenishment activities going forward, adding that intra-regional trade agreements with bilateral currency swaps signed by the government this year will likely help sustain shipments to countries such as China and Hong Kong next year.

In a separate report, AmResearch Sdn Bhd Malaysia said conditions have far improved resulting from the government’s commitments on structural reforms, loose monetary policy measures, stimulus spending and improving external environment. It expects GDP (growth domestic growth) may accelerate next year, but will remain around 3.5 percen­tage growth.

The research house listed forecasted public spending averaging RM1 billion per month until end of next year, recent reduction in personal income tax rates to raise private consumption, a recovery in private invest­ment as well as raised global demand for Malay­sian-made goods as key contributing factors to the GDP growth.

To note, the government announced yesterday that Malaysian economy is expected to grow between four to five per cent next year, barring any unfore­seen global economic or financial crisis. Adding to this would be Bank Negara Malaysia’s (Malaysian Central Bank) outlook for the economy to perform better into the third and fourth quarters of this year.

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