POLLING in Myanmar on Nov 7 has been widely dismissed as seriously lacking in legitimacy since the main opposition party – the National League for Democracy (NLD), headed by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi — has been barred from contesting.
But there are some observers who suggest by seeking to give decades of military rule a veneer of legitimacy through suffrage — albeit army-staged — the generals may have unwittingly created a framework for a democratic system that could one day put junta out of power and bring about much-needed reforms.
The status quo is expected to remain for now although, as one analyst points out, a subtle change could become apparent in the future with the appearance of more civilian but fewer army faces.
While few dare bet against the outcome of the military-orchestrated election, there’s a chance that over time more political space may be created with prospects for economic improvements and a voice for ordinary Myanmarese.
It is, of course, unrealistic to suggest this will happen any time soon. Presently, the country’s constitution only serves to tighten the military’s grip on power. Retired army brass, aligned to Senior General Than Shwe, are poised to take most of parliament and senate seats. Pro-democracy parties are not expected to pose even a token challenge, given the restrictive election laws and prohibitive registration fees.
Walkovers are predicted for the two pro-military groups whose lawmakers’ choices of a powerful army-backed president and ministerial appointments are foregone conclusions.
For the ailing economy, the generals may introduce some reforms to get around crippling western sanctions and open a way for the country to start exporting its natural resources.
One analyst goes so far as to say the election might offer flickering hopes for “civilianising” the government that would lead eventually to pragmatic reforms and economic policies.
Such a drastic change — if it does happen at all — will open up Myanmar to much of the world. Myanmarese will definitely benefit from plans to improve their agriculture sector. There is a high population concentration here — about 70 per cent, accounting for over half of the country’s economic output.
Once the world’s largest rice exporter, Myanmar is aiming to regain that status. Last year, it exported over one million tonnes of the staple.
Regional assemblies have also been set up in what is seen as the best prospect for change and perhaps, also a subtle military nod for more civilian input at local level while still retaining central power.
There are also hopes moderates will emerge among the generals who may bring in technocrats or form political alliances with powerful public figures.
As for western sanctions, substantial reforms and a big improvement in human rights records are clearly necessary before any trade embargo can be lifted. Freeing detained political activists or opposition politicians, including Aung San Suu Kyi, numbering more than 2,000, is a good start.
The expiry of Suu Kyi’s house arrest term is due six days after the polls and some analysts believe the generals might release her and some other political prisoners when they are no longer deemed threats to what appears to be an transfer of sovereign power to themselves.
The 78-year-old Than Shwe and the number two Maung Aye, 72, will continue to remain in charge either directly as president and vice president, or as behind-the-scene puppeteers. The decision-making process will be restricted to a cabal of hardliners with the top two having the final say in all matters of state.
Indeed, if change were to come about in Myanmar, it could be through what some analysts call “an unintended consequence” of democratisation in the mould of especially Thailand which elects a civilian government but it is no secret the Thai military has a direct hand in keeping government of the day in power despite the democratic process.
For now, a western-style democracy remains hugely elusive for Mynamar – a country ruled for decades by an oligarchy of military despots. Any expectation that a transfer to civilian rule will happen soon is misguided.
At best, a switch from totalitarianism to democracy will be a slow evolution that could take at least a decade, or even longer, to crystalise.