Since January this year, civil unrest has escalated into violence across North Africa into Middle East. Dictators across these regions are fighting to embrace their political powers while the protestors refuse to make peace. The violence has been spreading fast from Tunisia into Egypt, Ivory Coast, Libya and Syria with more revolts to be expected in coming months.
In the beginning, people in Tunisia and Egypt fought for welfare from governments to accommodate tough living conditions and protested against rapid inflation in food prices. Later, the violence broke out when dictators were discovered with gigantic hidden wealth at the expense of reaping off from citizens’ hard work over decades.
After the ouster of Tunisia’s ex-Pesident Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the domino effects rippled into Egypt and the hardcore men of this country started to yell for democracy on streets until the leaders stepped down or eventually fled.
On the outlook, American President Barack Obama and other Western leaders will continue to push for peaceful change in these troubled regions, but the sudden change in strong friendship of US and Egypt has puzzled many neighbouring leaders while US military forces have even been deployed there for strategic alliance.
Egypt has provided geographical advantages to US forces. Without this allied state, the US and its commercial counterparts would have relocated their shipping via air and sea cargo, refueling and repairing aircraft along other parts of the Persian Gulf, which includes the consolidation of military troop movements as well.
After Egypt’s ex-President Mubarak was captured, dictators in the neighbouring regions have been spooked by the fate of Mubarak, who is now facing trial and a possible death sentence. Logically, this explains why Libya’s President Moammar Gadhafi, who is facing an onslaught from armed rebels and Nato air, will fight to his last breath than to surrender his powers to the protest.
When this goes on, especially in Libya, the fight has become a personal struggle. The protest between the citizens and dethroned Government is no more about just surrendering. The people believe they are fighting for the next generations to live in democracy while shedding blood may be the price to pay for this revolution.
The leaders believe they are lawful to suppress the insubordination by threats of massacre that has been reinforced under the dictatorship for many years.
While Gadhafi refuses to give in, Nato leaders have been embarking on a bombing campaign over the past two months on Libya’s Government forces and believe that ousting Gadhafi’s power is the only way to secure the safety of Libyan civilians.
Toward the Northeast, Syria’s government has become unpopular accused of committing atrocities against its own people. Rights Watch is urging the United Nations to hold Al-Assad’s regime accountable and the civil protest shows no sign of waning. The push for democratic reform is only the beginning for the whole region that will have more violence emerging soon.
In the Arabian Peninsula, the leaders of two key US allies, namely Bahrain and Yemen, are struggling to maintain control despite slowly mounting international pressure. In coming September, Bahrain is to hold a parliamentary election and fill up the seats vacated by members of Al Wefaq, which left parliament in protest over recent crackdown.
Yemen’s leader Saleh, has been a leading US ally against al Qaeda, which has claimed responsibility for two attempted attacks on the United States from its Yemen-based quarter. The main concern from US and Nato forces will be the conversion of Yemen into Al-Qaeda’s working ground should the existing Government fails.
While we do not foresee an imminent end to the political fights and unrest in the Gulf regions, what is left to be worried is the eventual surge in crude oil prices given the possible cut in oil supply and the rise of transportation cost from the warring territories.
Global industries involving in high and regular consumption of crude oil like airlines, shipping and transportations, resin manufacturing, milling and processing of raw crude etc. should take precaution in hedging against potential losses instead of taking head-on impact when the inflation flares up.
DAR Wong is the Principal Consultant of APSRI. The expressions are solely his own. He can be reached at [email protected]