SIBU will again be one of the most keenly contested seats in the general elections as two old foes — SUPP and DAP — continue to battle for this urban constituency in Sarawak’s Central Region.
The outcome of the election for the parliamentary seat of Sibu, comprising the three state seats of Nangka, Bawang Assan and Pelawan, is one of the most difficult to predict as neither side has a clear voting advantage.
Most times, winning margins have been slim and with the red hot campaigning, the result is expected to be close again this time around.
In the past, the Chinese made up 33 per cent of the total population but their migration to other towns has reduced the percentage to 25.
However, Sibu’s registered voters are still overwhelmingly Chinese.
According to the statistics of the 2011 State Election Commission, voters composition in the three state seats that constitute the Sibu parliamentary seat are as follows:
• Bawang Assan has 16,844 voters (Ibans 29.6 per cent; Chinese 65.2 per cent, Malay/Melanau 5.2 per cent).
* Pelawan has 22,559 voters (Ibans 2.4 per cent; Chinese 92 per cent; Malay/Melanau 5.6 per cent).
* Nangka has 12,973 voters (Ibans 18.8 per cent; Chinese 29.2 per cent, Malay/Melanau 51.7 per cent).
Since 1982 when DAP made its first foray into the Sibu constituency and scored a major upset over SUPP, the battle for the seat has been waxing and waning for both parties.
That year, SUPP was expected to win comfortably as it fielded one of Sibu’s favourite sons, Tan Sri Dr Wong Soon Kai, while DAP put up its local branch chief, Ling Sie Ming.
However, Ling triumphed against overwhelming odds to win with a slim majority of 141 votes.
That win set the tone of the intense rivalry between the two parties as in the following election in 1987, SUPP wrested the seat from DAP when their candidate Tieu Sung Seng beat the incumbent MP Ling by 546 votes.
In 1988, there was a constituency re-delineation exercise in which Sibu was split into two areas — Sibu and Lanang.
After the exercise, the tide turned in favour of SUPP. In the 1990 general election, the late Datuk Robert Lau Hui Chew was nominated in place of Tieu to defend the seat for SUPP against Ling.
Garnering 11,914 votes against Ling’s 9,906, Lau won with a comfortable majority of 2,008 votes.
Lau went on to defend the seat in the next four general elections until his death on April 9, 2010.
In the 1995 elections, he brushed aside the challenge from DAP’s rising star Wong Ho Leng with a majority of 4,845 votes.
In 1999, Lau tightened his grip on Sibu when he defended the seat with a thumping 9,142 winning margin over DAP’s Wong Sing Nang.
In 2004, when Lau met Ho Leng again in the parliamentary election, it was a closer fight. Lau polled 20,501 votes against Ho Leng’s 17,161 to retain his seat with a 3,340 majority votes.
The two met in the 2008 general elections and once again Lau thumped Ho Leng, this time with a majority of 3,235 votes.
However, the winds of change were blowing and in 2010, DAP finally retook Sibu in a by-election following Lau’s demise.
With his nemesis no longer in the fray, Ho Leng beat SUPP’s Robert Lau Hui Yew by 398 votes.
And so the tables are turned in this general elections with DAP in the driving seat and SUPP trying to dislodge the opposition party.
Both parties are fielding new faces this time around — SUPP opting for well- known community leader, former Temenggong Vincent Lau Lee Ming while DAP is banking on Oscar Ling, the special assistant of the incumbent Ho Leng.
Although this is their electoral baptism of fire, both men are no stranger to the local political and social scene.
Vincent has always been the ‘man behind the scene’ in SUPP’s five-term (1990-2010) hold on the seat through his late uncle Datuk Robert Lau. He has also been active in NGOs and community service in Sibu.
His electoral debut at a relatively late age of 65 was prompted by his uncle’s death in 2010 which paved the way for a by- election where DAP, through its state chairman Ho Leng, wrested the seat from SUPP.
On paper, Vincent should have the upper hand over his much younger opponent, Oscar, a pharmacist by profession.
Vincent would have a tougher fight with Ho Leng in the fray but illness forced the latter to withdraw and name Oscar as his replacement.
However, the DAP new face has been exposed to local politics for a number of years as special assistant to Ho Leng and will not be a pushover.
Vincent himself admitted as much when he said recently he was taking Oscar’s challenge “very seriously.”
Another factor SUPP has to be wary of is the trend among the Sibu urban voters, especially the youth, in throwing their support behind the opposition.
But Sibu voters did not earn their reputation of being fickle and unpredictable for no reason.
More than 2,000 of them turned up for Vincent’s ceramah (public talk) at Rejang Park recently, taking political pundits by surprise as SUPP gatherings seldom drew such a huge crowd in the state.
If this trend persists throughout the campaigning period, Vincent should have the upper hand and DAP might have to go back to the drawing board to chart a new strategy.
In the meantime, we just have to wait and see what happens on polling day (May 5).