MIDDLE EAST watchers say Iraq, known historically as the cradle of civilisation, faces the unsavory prospects of slipping into chaos and perhaps even failed state status.
The spread of extremism in the northern and western parts of Iraq has allowed the most militant extremists in the region to seize the country’s second largest city of Mosul and control Ninewah Province after overunning Fallujah and Ramadi, just west of Baghdad late last year.
They then pushed south to capture Samarra and Tikrit and also took possession of Iraq’s largest oil refinery in Baiji – with little fightback from government forces. Their ultimate objective: Baghdad.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki has promised to retaliate but serious questions hang over his leadership and the Iraqi army’s combat capability.
The latest development has also stirred Iraqi Shi’a leaders into action with a call to Shi’a militia groups to stand ready to protect Shi’a shrines and neighbourhoods in Baghdad and the Shi’a holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, south of Baghdad.
Admittedly, only the US has the resources to impact on events in Iraq but there has been no suggestion on the part of the Americans to intervene militarily (not that they have any stomach left for it) although Malaki has requested for US air strikes.
So far, the White House has agreed to deploy 300 military advisers – with supposedly no combat duties – to set up an operations centre in Baghdad and assist Iraq’s security forces.
According to Middle East experts, there are several potential outcomes to the current fighting in Iraq.
For one, Iraq’s Kurds will not remain idle as they have much to lose, including a growing economy, political stability and no less important, the prospect of increased revenue from rising oil production.
Their security forces will dig in to defend not only Kurdistan but also Kurdish minorities. Iraqi Kurds may also seize the opportunity, arising from the prevailing political uncertainties, to declare independence from Baghdad.
The long-foretold fragmentation of Iraq could come true as well. If the Kurds decided to go it alone in the north, Iraq would be divided with Sunnis occupying the north and west and Shi’a the east and south.
Turkey will not be doing nothing on the sideline either. The NATO member now has sizeable economic interests in Iraq, including in Ninewah, Samarra and the autonomous Kurdish region.
If Turkey’s security comes under threat, its military will be mobilised – coupled with a NATO Article 5 request requiring NATO nations, including the US, to come to Turkey’s aid.
Furthermore, the experts say, the presence of extremist forces on Turkey’s southern border alongside radical militants on its border with Syria, could potentially threaten Turkey – and this could be regarded as a threat to all NATO members.
While Iran will not be a passive bystander, driving out the militants from all of Iraq is a big and risk-filled undertaking, requiring Iran to commit a large number of troops.
Such a scenario, if it materialises, will be seen as one of the greatest ironies in recent Middle Eastern history – Iranians replacing American occupation forces.
An analyst from the Council for Arab-British Understanding said: “The international community has forgotten and failed Iraq. Even recent events have not stirred the moral obligation the West has towards Iraq.
“The power vacuum inside Iraq, worsened by Maliki’s sectarian regime, is further intensified by an international community that abdicates responsibility.
“Despite the invasion and the devastating implications of it, Iraq shame is a convenient excuse for inaction, a useful state of being for political establishments to wash their hands of a bloody mess.
“A political solution of all regional players, that includes Iran, is urgently needed. All of Iraq’s representatives must be supported by the international community to achieve a solution not influenced by sectarianism.
“International assistance of any form must be dependent on guarantees of an inclusive pluralistic approach to politics in Iraq that respects the needs and aspirations of all communities rather than one grouping.”
The US withdrew from Iraq in 2011, sparked by the call within the US administration “to end the Iraq war.”
Four years down the road, the US and its Arab allies now face a threat far more destructive that the Sunni-Shi’a war.
Observers believe the Obama administration may find it ‘dishonorable’ not to commit military forces, however modest, this time around.
For it’s patently clear the Maliki government does not have the necessary wherewithal to defend the country on its own.