THE US is losing the war on opium-poppy production in Afghanistan, where output has grown to record levels despite about US$7.6 billion in US counter-narcotics spending there, according to a report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
Poppy cultivation, which is a “significant” revenue source for the Taliban, has expanded in arid areas of southwestern Afghanistan due to the use of affordable deep-well technology, and has resumed in areas once declared poppy-free, John Sopko wrote in the report released today.
As the US continues withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, the failure of the costly effort to break the country’s dependence on the international drug trade is among the legacies of a war that had cost 2,349 US their lives as of Oct 17.
Last year’s record poppy cultivation – and the likelihood that it’s increased further this year – “calls into question the long-term effectiveness” of US eradication programmes in Afghanistan, where the poppy trade has the potential to “undermine US objectives,” according to Sopko.
“The narcotics trade poisons the Afghan financial sector and undermines the Afghan state’s legitimacy by stoking corruption, sustaining criminal networks, and providing significant financial support to the Taliban and other insurgent groups,” Sopko wrote in the report sent to Secretary of State John Kerry, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, Attorney General Eric Holder and US Agency for International Development Administrator Rajiv Shah.
Insurgency’s windfall
The narcotics business has been a “windfall for the insurgency, which profits from the drug trade at almost every level,” Charles Randolph, programme coordinator at the US Embassy in Kabul, wrote to Sopko in response to the report.
Afghan farmers grew a record 209,000 hectares (516,000 acres) of opium poppies in 2013, up 36 per cent from 154,000 hectares in 2012 and surpassing the previous peak of 193,000 hectares in 2007, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.
The UN has yet to report its estimate of the May 2014 harvest. With deteriorating security in many parts of rural Afghanistan and low levels of eradication, opium cultivation probably increased this year, Sopko wrote.
‘Significant threat’
Sopko’s figures reflect spending since 2002. While the 2013 data isn’t new, officials at the Defense and State Department acknowledged in response to his report that more than a decade of effort hasn’t produced the desired results.
“Poppy production is on the increase and is a significant threat to US and international efforts in Afghanistan,” Michael Lumpkin, assistant secretary of defense for special operations/low-intensity conflict, said in a letter to Sopko dated Oct 7.
“In our opinion, the failure to reduce poppy cultivation and increase eradication is due to the lack of Afghan government support for the effort,” Lumpkin wrote.
The poppy planting season for the 2015 harvest is under way this month and will last until the end of November.
Afghanistan produced about 5,500 metric tonnes of raw opium last year, up 49 per cent from 2012, according to the State Department’s 2014 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. Afghanistan produces more than 80 per cent of the world’s opium, which can be further processed to make heroin.
Europe’s heroin
The UN office on drugs estimates the value of opium production in Afghanistan at the farm level was US$950 million in 2013, equivalent to almost 5 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product of US$20.7 billion. Previously, Sopko has said the value of opium and its derivatives was about US$3 billion in 2013, or almost 15 per cent of the country’s GDP.
The anticipated increase in opium production this year defies a June 2013 call by the Group of Eight leaders at their summit in Northern Ireland. In their communique, the leaders urged “further measures to reduce” poppy cultivation and “tackle more effectively” the nation’s illicit drug activities.
A growing portion of Afghanistan’s raw opium is processed into heroin and morphine base by drug labs inside the country, reducing its bulk by 90 per cent and facilitating its movement to markets in Europe, Asia and the Middle East through Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia, according to the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy.— Bloomberg