Will Adenan call for early election?

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KUCHING: Speculations of an early election are rife especially after Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Adenan Satem blurted out “Give me another five years” when he was interviewed live on TV1 on Wednesday night.

Even before Adenan made the statement, there were already rumours that the next state election might be held earlier – most likely in November this year – after the impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) to be implemented in April has been well cushioned.

With Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin calling on Sarawak twice within a short period of one month and the current visit of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, speculations abound that the election may be even closer, much closer perhaps, even in March, to totally avoid the GST impact and to bring in an element of surprise to both his inner circle and political foes.

Even Adenan’s umrah in late January to early February has been read by some political observers to be a trip to seek divine wisdom on the date of the state election and the choice of candidates.

And why not? Adenan was the topic of discussions when Chinese leaders visited each other this Chinese New Year.

According to the Federation of Kuching and Samarahan Divisions Chinese Associations Sarawak vice-chairman Richard Wee, the Chinese leaders were so pleased with Adenan that they wished him good health and longevity so he would have time to follow through his good policies.

There is definitely a ‘feel good’ factor here especially among the Chinese community. Political observers believe that if Adenan were to drag on, his good deeds might be taken for granted. They said the impact of GST might even drown or neutralise the positive development Adenan had tried hard to bring about, especially BN’s relationship with the Chinese community, the very community which snubbed the coalition in the 2011 state election.

A recent observation by a senior civil servant in a strategic department shed some light on the possibility of an early election.

“Our department is all ready for the state election. We are well prepared for this election which may be as early as March,” said the civil servant.

However, the question now is – Is the state Election Commission ready for it especially when the whole department is seen to be very busy dealing with the delineation of 11 new state seats passed by the State Legislative Assembly during its sitting in last November.

What is more crucial is the fact that the delineation process is required by law to go through a period of at least four months, including the process of two public displays and two public hearings which involve one month each. With this scenario, the earliest possible date for the 11 new seats to be gazetted and contested is after May. Thus, if Adenan hopes to include the 11 new seats, he will not hold the election in March.

On the other hand, why must Adenan include the 11 new seats? He still can choose to call for the election with the present 71 seats, especially now that state PKR vice-president See Chee How had been granted leave for the judicial review he filed against EC’s delineation proposal on the new seats.

As such, no one can be certain how long it will take to finally settle the delineation issue. The case can even drag on until expiry of the State Assembly in June next year.

Thus, it would actually be wise for Adenan not to include the 11 new seats in his state election plan.

But the next question arises – How will he settle the disputes between Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and United People’s Party (UPP) and between Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) and Parti Tenaga Rakyat Sarawak (Teras)?

According to a political observer, Adenan as the state BN chairman could just hand over the BN ticket to winnable candidates from the four wrangling parties.

Adenan even confirmed this possible scenario when he was interviewed by The Borneo Post on Feb 15, saying he would give the BN ticket not only to winnable candidates from the four BN component parties but to UPP and Teras which are BN-friendly.

“And I am confident that if he calls for an early election, he could even garner more seats than what BN obtained in 2011,” he said, adding that this would be because of Adenan’s good record.

He further stressed that if the election is called next month, both PBB and PRS would be able to deliver all the seats allocated to them (PBB 35 seats and PRS 9 seats), thus ensuring that BN secure a simple majority of 44 seats.

“And I believe that the current 11 incumbents in the other four parties can also deliver their seats. Plus, I believe that some of the Chinese seats which fell to the opposition in the last state election can be won back this time around,” he elaborated.

Meanwhile, a senior opposition political observer was of the view that Adenan would gain more seats if he were to call for election only after the delineation of the new seats are gazetted as he believed that the new seats would provide Adenan with more room to manoeuvre.

“Adenan will win whether he calls for a snap election in March or an early election in August. But he will enjoy more advantages if he were to call it later. If he were to call it later in the year, he still enjoys a good mandate.

“However, we must bear in mind that with the new seats, he can have more freedom to choose his own leaders, or have more time to groom a new generation of leaders who will continue his policies.”

However, a senior media practitioner believes that it is more crucial for Adenan to ensure that his legacy is carried on by his successor.

“Age and health are not on his side. So, I believe that the aim of Adenan is to put things in the right perspective, to pave way for a government that will follow through what he has started.”

When asked about a possible early election, state BN secretary-general Datuk Dr Stephen Rundi Utom said he believed that the chief minister might want to see through the projects which have been promised to the people especially in the rural areas are implemented before the current term expires in June next year.

“He has nothing to rush. But the decision is his prerogative and if he decides so, we are always ready,” assured Dr Rundi.

His view was shared by PRS president Tan Sri Datuk Amar Dr James Masing, who predicted that the state election would be held in the first quarter of next year.

“The speculation that the chief minister may call for an early state election with the recent visit of the deputy prime minister and the current visit of the prime minister is just a common thing.

“But then again if the chief minister decides to call for an early election, we in PRS are confident that we can deliver the nine seats to BN,” added Masing.