Farmer Kamarulzaman, showing his damaged crops due to extreme hot weather in Tanah Merah. — Bernama photo
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysians would have to brace for a wetter monsoon due to the effects that stem from the La Nina phenonemon which is set to occur end of this year.
Climatologist and Oceanographer Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said there will be higher rainfalls during that period and also the likelihood of serious flooding problems occurring in the country.
He said this prediction is consistent with the United States’ National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) latest analysis in April that predicted the likelihood of the La Nina condition happening at the end of the year is more than 70 per cent.
In fact the latest sub-surface temperature at depths of 50 to 200 metres across the Pacific Ocean had already indicated a colder than normal temperature, he told Bernama in an interview recently.
“This is a strong signature of a La Nina development. This condition has already intiated a process that makes the sea surface temperature colder than normal in the next couple of months to indicate the beginning of a La Nina event,” he said.
He said usually after a strong El Nino, the system will ‘overshoot’ and move to a La Nina condition.
However, Tangang said it is still early to predict whether this year’s La Nina’s intensity will be as strong as this El Nino episode, as based on the past El Nino and La Nina episodes, a strong El Nino is not necessarily followed by a strong La Nina event.
“A La Nina condition will strengthen easterly winds across the Pacific and this will push moisture to the west and make our region becoming a moisture convergence region and monsoon strength is expected to increase and rainfall would be higher than normal.
“In such condition, the likelihood for flooding is certainly higher, especially in the low-lying areas,” he said.
He also pointed out that the current frequent heavy rains that bring respite to the hot weather, is however, not an indication of the beginning of the La Nina phenomenon.
Instead, he said the situation signals that the weather is returning to normal condition.
“In the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia especially, diurnal cycle is operating well as indicated by afternoon and late afternoon rainfall that we’re experiencing now,” he said. — Bernama