The Game of Thrones in Malaysian politics

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CAN the yet to be registered political party, led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, assume the role of an effective political fifth column?

The former Prime Minister announced last week he intended to lead a new ‘3M’ force, consisting of former Umno leaders, with the avowed aim to dislodge the Barisan Nasional (BN) government of Tan Sri Najib Tun Razak.

Rumours have since spread like wildfire over the proposed formation of this new party with some even claiming several political heavyweights might consider switching sides.

How much influence will this new party have in the next general election is hard to say. The big question on everyone’s lip is what kind of chemistry will it have with the main opposition bloc Pakatan Harapan (PH)? Will they click or snap?

An enemy’s enemy is my friend. This saying is somewhat true but if the thinking of the parties involved is diametrically opposed, then the Mahathir-PH linkup will not last long. The collapse of the tripartite alliance, comprising DAP, PKR and PAS, under the banner of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is a glaring example.

Other than funding which is vital for a political party, other forms of resources are also major components to be considered. If Mahathir’s new party hopes to make an impact in the next general election, its first big test will be how it goes about attracting those elites with either a strong Umno background or a compelling tendency to gravitate towards the ruling coalition. Arguably, how many Umno members will align with their former leader turned de facto opposition leader?

Political observers believe when Mahathir announced his intention to form a new party – and judging from the make-up of supporters who showed up – the new party will be open to all ethnic groups while still maintaining a core Malay force. From the looks of it though, this proposed new party is quite similar to PH, especially its component parties – PKR (Parti Keadilan Raykat) and Amanah (National Trust Party).

Many have high expectations of Mahathir’s new party if and when it is registered. The protagonists believe by teaming up with the opposition front, they have the strength to vanquish Umno and BN. Towards this end, the manner of their initial salvos will be most critical in setting off the “resignation tide” within Umno.

If the proposed new party just talks big and does little, then its development will meet with resistance, especially over the allocation of seats in the next general election. From past general elections and also the recent Sarawak State polls, we could see infighting even among so-called friendly parties over the distribution of constituencies.

If Mahathir’s party does not recruit members in a manner acceptable to its opposition partners, I believe negotiations among them as to who gets to contest where will be problematic.

Many who want to see the BN government – and more specifically the Prime Minister – toppled are banking on Mahathir’s party to provide the catalyst for change at Putrajaya. In this, the worst case scenario for Mahathir’s camp would be to let Umno further consolidate and strengthen its power base and launch counter-attacks against it. And in consequence, from a page right out of the Game of Thrones, a no-holds-barred struggle to outflank each other and grab power will ensue between Umno and the so-called ‘3M’ force with the eroding of Malay political power as the inevitable casualty.

Mahathir still gives people the distinct impression he is only trying to pull the Prime Minister down, not the entire Umno. But with his advanced age, he is not as charismatic as before. Even if his party is eventually registered, how far can it go is still the burning question. (Translated from Oriental Daily)