Seeking peaceful transitions

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PSEPHOLOGISTS and analysts are having a field day with recent and ongoing elections: finding lessons that can be learnt, identifying trends that could replicate in other places or might have global repercussions.

Jakarta has elected a new governor, after a campaign in which former academician and Minister of Education and Culture Anies Baswedan has apparently defeated (the official results aren’t yet out) the incumbent Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (popularly known as Ahok), who was Joko Widodo’s deputy when he became President of Indonesia in 2014.

Most Indonesians I spoke to in the run up to the elections agreed that the outcome was difficult to predict. Now that the election is over, most explanations for the results centre on the accusation that Ahok has committed blasphemy, based on a speech making a reference to the Quran (subsequently edited and transcribed in a way that its editor has been charged for inciting religious and ethnic hatred) which resulted in rallies attended by tens of thousands against his candidacy.

The bigger question is whether the role of religion (or at least, its politics of identity) will now permanently play a central role in Indonesian politics. This has excited some Malaysians for whom politics has always been about identity rather than policy. Still, the post-colonial political institutions of Indonesia began and developed differently to ours: from the fate of the monarchies, to the extent of decentralisation, to the methods of choosing officeholders (the powerful Governor of Jakarta is directly elected by popular vote, while the Mayor of Kuala Lumpur is an appointee’s appointee). And while both the Rukun Negara and Pancasila make a reference to belief in God, in Indonesia six religions are officially named.

But in the era of apparently increasing populism, do these different historical and constitutional situations matter? Do some systems provide a better defence to populism (and ought they)?

Like Jakarta, the French presidential election occurs in two rounds, with the top two candidates from the first round graduating to a head-to-head. I passed the French Embassy in London on the day of the first round, where the queue trailed past a totally sold out éclair shop. The two successful candidates both share a key trait with Donald Trump: Emmanuel Macron has never before stood for elected office, while Marine Le Pen is placed on the populist far right. The apparently centrist Macron is almost certain to win, given the backing of former opponents who want to stop Le Pen.

Having a first-round elimination enables stakeholders to re-strategise and refocus, instead of investing all their resources and might on a single contest.

I landed in the UK to the immediate aftermath of a shock election being announced. In stating her intention to have an early election, Theresa May contradicted earlier pledges ruling out early elections. Though her political opponents criticised her, they nonetheless voted in support of the early election scheduled for June 8, since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 now requires a two-thirds majority vote for an early election.

Polls say that the Conservatives will emerge with a bigger majority (aided by the weakness of opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn), which will benefit the Prime Minister in being able to depart from David Cameron’s manifesto pledges in domestic policy; empowering her hand in Brexit negotiations with the European Union (also by diluting the ‘hard Brexit’ faction in her own party); and through gains in Scotland and Wales, weaken the calls to break up the United Kingdom.  Interestingly, there is no viable populist far-right option – no ‘British Trump’ – because they already claimed victory after Brexit, though that process is now being led by Theresa May.

Everyone from diplomats to students still asks when the Malaysian election is going to be. The answers range from either the end of the year to the maximum 60 days after the natural expiry of this Parliament in June 2018. A further theory is that the election will somehow be further postponed: but any elaboration may be deemed seditious.

What we have had is the installation of the 15th Yang di-Pertuan Agong. True, for many Malaysians it was just another holiday for whom the kerises, tanjaks and nobat were pretty relics of the past, devoid of any significance.

That represents a failure of an education system that is supposed to prepare young people for citizenship with an understanding of our institutions, but even for them, the institution of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong provides continuity and stability that should strengthen the checks and balances against those who would amass power for themselves. Already, in the first few months of his reign, it is clear that many Malaysians have placed great confidence in Sultan Muhammad V in discharging his constitutional duties. Daulat Tuanku!

Tunku Zain Al-Abidin is founding president of Ideas.