Commodity Weekly Report 30 June 2013

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Gold and crude prices diversified last week and instilled confusion to market traders.

Basically, the dollar strengthened and pressed the yellow metal prices down below 1,200 levels that were last seen in October 2010.

However, crude prices managed to stay afloat due to better forecast in US consumer confidence and durable goods order.

Dow Jones markets recovered after mid week with higher pending home sales at 6.7 per cent growth in June which was above six times the media forecast.

Gold prices tumbled to 1,180 lows on Friday and recovered about US$40 before it closed for weekend. The market is extremely weak now due to panic selling and fears of widespread stimulus withdrawal initiated by US Federal Reserve.

This week, we expect the market to trade in consolidation from 1,180 to 1,260 ranges. The trend is rather tricky due to forthcoming monthly payroll figure to be released on coming Friday.

Be cautious in case the market disintegrates further as we foresee a possibility to reach 1,125 areas in near
future.

WTI Crude prices recovered from 93 bottoms and to above 97 levels on Friday. Technically, the market is seen with strong resistance at 98.50 areas and could be turning down this week for correction.

We reckoned the bargain-hunting will emerge at 95 levels while the trend may trade in rather tight range this week.

Be a cautious for risk management in case the prices drive beyond the expected range of 95 to 98.50 bands.

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Derivatives moves into lower trend while September contract closed at 2,344 on Friday.

Weaker outlook based on lesser demand comes from top Asia importers such as China and India have affected the buying interest.

This week, we expect the market will hold at 2,270 to 2,300 as projected before while the resistance will remain at 2,420 levels.